Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
64
Confidence
89
Edge score
Seattle SeahawksTier 2 · StrongVerified
Seattle Seahawks carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
LAR
Los Angeles Rams
Win probability
62.0%
Upset probability
38%
Cover probability
59.8%
Projected score
22–25
SEA – LAR
Projected total
47.2
Market 47.5
One-score prob.
51.1%
Overtime prob.
8.9%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- Seattle Seahawks projects ahead on road EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a medium-volatility game. A single turnover swing or red-zone sequence flips the projected margin.
- Biggest risk
- Late line movement against the recommended side would erase most of the estimated edge.
- Biggest unknown
- Snap-count allocation for the returning skill players.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 64 / 100 · Medium volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 12.0 probability points
Market71.0% LAR
Power Rating64.0% LAR
ELO59.0% LAR
EPA67.0% LAR
Matchup63.0% LAR
Injury62.0% LAR
Weather62.0% LAR
Game Theory65.0% LAR
Models are aligned within 12 probability points. No material conflict to reconcile.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 62.0% | 40 | 24.8 |
| Model agreement | 12.0 pt spread | 20 | 12.0 |
| Market stability | 1.0 pt move | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury certainty | No open items | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather certainty | verified | 5 | 5.0 |
| Variance profile | Medium | 10 | 7.0 |
| Composite | 68.8 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 9.0 pts of probability | 35 | 26.2 |
| Public bias | 34% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 13.2 |
| Contest ownership | 12% projected | 15 | 11.0 |
| Matchup advantage | 1.3 rating gap | 15 | 1.9 |
| Injury impact | None | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather impact | 0 mph wind | 5 | 5.0 |
| Composite | 67.4 | ||
Team comparison
Seattle Seahawks (6-4) vs Los Angeles Rams (6-4)
| SEA | Metric | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | Power rating | 2.4 |
| 1528 | ELO | 1560 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| 0.03 | Offensive EPA | 0.13 |
| 0.01 | Defensive EPA | -0.02 |
| 44 | Success rate | 44 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 9 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 6.5 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 60 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 3-2 L5 |
| Neutral | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| neutral | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- SEA pass rush (33% pressure) vs LAR offensive line (60 grade)
- LAR explosive-play rate 9% vs SEA defensive EPA 0.01
- Third down: LAR 39% vs SEA 39%
- Red zone: LAR 55% vs SEA 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors LAR in neutral situations.
Market analysis
Sitting on the key number 3 — half-point cost is material.
Opening spread
-2.5
Current spread
-3.5
Expected close
-4.0
Opening total
46.5
Current total
47.5
Moneyline (home)
-245
Implied probability
71.0%
Model probability
62.0%
Market disagreement
9.0 pts
Public tickets (home)
66%
Reverse line movement
None
Steam
Detected
Sharp side
SEA
Line volatility
Medium
Expected value
11.1%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
No unresolved availability items recorded for this game in the demo data set.
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Cross-country trip
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
70°F
Wind
0 mph
Gusts
0 mph
Rain
0%
Snow
0%
Humidity
40%
Field
Indoor
Surface
Turf
Roof
Indoor
Scoring impact
Negligible
Passing impact
Neutral
Kicking impact
Neutral
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: no extreme ticket concentration.
- Primetime bias: national-window games historically draw inflated public confidence.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: minimal.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.