Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Graded decisions
181
Overall hit rate
60.8%
Mean calibration error
0.020
Avg closing line value
+0.42
Calibration by probability band
A calibrated model wins about as often as it says it will
50-60%predicted 55.0% · actual 53.0% · n=41 · -2.0 pts
50-60%0.5%
60-70%predicted 65.0% · actual 67.0% · n=58 · +2.0 pts
60-70%0.7%
70-80%predicted 74.0% · actual 72.0% · n=44 · -2.0 pts
70-80%0.7%
80-90%predicted 84.0% · actual 86.0% · n=27 · +2.0 pts
80-90%0.9%
90%+predicted 93.0% · actual 91.0% · n=11 · -2.0 pts
90%+0.9%
Bands drifting more than 3 points from their prediction indicate the confidence formula needs reweighting in Settings.
Accuracy by recommendation tier
Higher tiers must outperform lower tiers
| Tier | Decisions | Correct | Hit rate | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | 22 | 18 | 81.8% | Performing as tiered |
| T2 | 39 | 27 | 69.2% | Acceptable |
| T3 | 61 | 36 | 59.0% | Acceptable |
| T4 | 34 | 17 | 50.0% | Under review |
| PASS | 25 | 12 | 48.0% | Under review |
Lessons learned
Recorded against individual ledger entries
No lessons recorded yet. Add a lesson to any graded row in the Season Ledger and it will appear here.