2025 SEASON · WEEK 12 · DEMO DATA

Survivor

Elimination-adjusted expected value, not just win probability

Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.

Contest parameters

Teams already used (click to toggle)

Rebuy rules, double-pick weeks, prize structure, and tie-breakers are recorded per contest on the Contests page and feed this optimizer.

Safest pick
BAL
89.0% win probability
Highest-EV pick
DEN
EV score 84.2 · 1% owned
Best contrarian
DEN
1% owned · 79.0%
Best alternate
TB
EV score 80.1

Survivor board

412 entrants remaining of 2500 · 1 entry(s) · balanced profile

TeamOpponentWin %Own %Duplicate riskFuture valueReplacementElimination %LeverageEV score
Denver BroncosLV79.0%1%2725721%7884.2
Tampa Bay BuccaneersNYG76.0%1%2586524%7580.1
Houston TexansTEN69.0%2%4725731%6779
Pittsburgh SteelersCLE67.0%1%2586533%6676
San Francisco 49ersARI64.0%4%7725736%6075.4
Miami DolphinsNE68.0%9%16725732%5973.6
Minnesota VikingsCHI56.0%2%4586544%5470.3
Los Angeles RamsSEA62.0%12%22725738%5068.7
Baltimore RavensNYJ89.0%34%61725711%5565.2
Los Angeles ChargersCIN58.0%14%25586542%4462.7
Detroit LionsGB63.0%18%32586537%4562.2
Kansas City ChiefsIND83.0%41%74586517%4254.6

Future schedule matrix

Next five opponents and estimated usability

TeamW13W14W15W16W17
DENKC@LACLV@ARISEA
TB@ATLNOCAR@DET@MIA
HOUJAX@INDKC@LACTEN
PIT@CINCLE@BALTEN@JAX
SF@SEAARITENDET@LAR
MIABUF@NYJNE@CLETB
MIN@GBDET@CHISEA@NYG
LAR@CARSEAARI@PHISF

Green cells are projected home games and score higher on future usability.

Five-week plan

  1. Week 12Denver Broncos79% · EV 84.2
  2. Week 13Tampa Bay Buccaneers76% · EV 80.1
  3. Week 14Houston Texans69% · EV 79
  4. Week 15Pittsburgh Steelers67% · EV 76
  5. Week 16San Francisco 49ers64% · EV 75.4

The plan preserves future win-probability equity; it is not a commitment and should be re-evaluated each week in the War Room.

Preserve vs avoid

Teams to preserve
  • DEN — future value 72
  • HOU — future value 72
  • SF — future value 72
Popular teams to avoid
  • KC41% projected ownership
  • BAL34% projected ownership
  • DET18% projected ownership