Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
66
Confidence
1
Edge score
San Francisco 49ersPass · No EdgeVerified
No actionable edge at the current number. The engine recommends a Pass for market-based contests; the straight-up winner below is still supplied for Pick'em formats.
Predicted winner
SF
San Francisco 49ers
Win probability
64.0%
Upset probability
36%
Cover probability
38.5%
Projected score
25–24
SF – ARI
Projected total
48.6
Market 48.5
One-score prob.
54.3%
Overtime prob.
9.5%
Decision audit
Judgment-driven
- Why the pick wins
- San Francisco 49ers projects ahead on road EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a medium-volatility game. A single turnover swing or red-zone sequence flips the projected margin.
- Biggest risk
- Late line movement against the recommended side would erase most of the estimated edge.
- Biggest unknown
- Snap-count allocation for the returning skill players.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 66 / 100 · Medium volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 8.0 probability points
Market34.5% ARI
Power Rating38.0% ARI
ELO33.0% ARI
EPA41.0% ARI
Matchup37.0% ARI
Injury36.0% ARI
Weather36.0% ARI
Game Theory39.0% ARI
Models are aligned within 12 probability points. No material conflict to reconcile.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 64.0% | 40 | 25.6 |
| Model agreement | 8.0 pt spread | 20 | 14.7 |
| Market stability | 1.0 pt move | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury certainty | No open items | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather certainty | estimated | 5 | 3.5 |
| Variance profile | Medium | 10 | 7.0 |
| Composite | 70.8 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 1.5 pts of probability | 35 | 4.4 |
| Public bias | 46% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 10.8 |
| Contest ownership | 11% projected | 15 | 11.3 |
| Matchup advantage | 2.9 rating gap | 15 | 4.3 |
| Injury impact | None | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather impact | 0 mph wind | 5 | 5.0 |
| Composite | 45.9 | ||
Team comparison
San Francisco 49ers (5-5) vs Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
| SF | Metric | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Power rating | 0.9 |
| 1595 | ELO | 1523 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| 0.14 | Offensive EPA | 0.06 |
| -0.06 | Defensive EPA | 0.04 |
| 49.9 | Success rate | 44 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 9 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 6.5 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 60 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| -7 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 2-3 L5 | Recent form | 3-2 L5 |
| Unsustainably bad | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| positive | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- SF pass rush (33% pressure) vs ARI offensive line (60 grade)
- ARI explosive-play rate 9% vs SF defensive EPA -0.06
- Third down: ARI 39% vs SF 39%
- Red zone: ARI 55% vs SF 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors SF in neutral situations.
Market analysis
No key number exposure.
Opening spread
1.5
Current spread
2.5
Expected close
2.0
Opening total
47.5
Current total
48.5
Moneyline (home)
+190
Implied probability
34.5%
Model probability
36.0%
Market disagreement
1.5 pts
Public tickets (home)
54%
Reverse line movement
None
Steam
Detected
Sharp side
ARI
Line volatility
Medium
Expected value
0.1%
CLV opportunity
Neutral
Bet timing
Avoid
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
No unresolved availability items recorded for this game in the demo data set.
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Cross-country trip
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
72°F
Wind
0 mph
Gusts
0 mph
Rain
0%
Snow
0%
Humidity
30%
Field
Dry, roof closed
Surface
Grass
Roof
Retractable
Scoring impact
Negligible
Passing impact
Neutral
Kicking impact
Neutral
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: no extreme ticket concentration.
- Primetime bias: not applicable.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: minimal.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.