Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
58
Confidence
239
Edge score
Pittsburgh SteelersTier 2 · StrongVerified
Pittsburgh Steelers carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
PIT
Pittsburgh Steelers
Win probability
67.0%
Upset probability
33%
Cover probability
36.1%
Projected score
19–16
PIT – CLE
Projected total
35.2
Market 36.5
One-score prob.
54.3%
Overtime prob.
9.5%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- Pittsburgh Steelers projects ahead on road EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (78 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a high-volatility game. Environment compresses the sample and raises the underdog's live win path.
- Biggest risk
- T. Boswell (K, CLE) status is unresolved — 1.5 projected points of swing.
- Biggest unknown
- Game-day wind forecast has not stabilized.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 58 / 100 · High volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 38.5 probability points
Market65.5% CLE
Power Rating35.0% CLE
ELO30.0% CLE
EPA38.0% CLE
Matchup34.0% CLE
Injury27.0% CLE
Weather36.0% CLE
Game Theory36.0% CLE
Material disagreement. The EPA and matchup models are more bullish on CLE than the market and injury models. The recommendation weights the market model heavily because the injury picture is unresolved; treat the probability as a range, not a point estimate.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 67.0% | 40 | 26.8 |
| Model agreement | 38.5 pt spread | 20 | 0.0 |
| Market stability | 1.0 pt move | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury certainty | 1 unresolved | 10 | 7.5 |
| Weather certainty | estimated | 5 | 3.5 |
| Variance profile | High | 10 | 3.5 |
| Composite | 51.3 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 32.5 pts of probability | 35 | 35.0 |
| Public bias | 74% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 5.2 |
| Contest ownership | 4% projected | 15 | 13.7 |
| Matchup advantage | 5.5 rating gap | 15 | 8.3 |
| Injury impact | 1 item(s) | 10 | 4.0 |
| Weather impact | 21 mph wind | 5 | 2.0 |
| Composite | 68.1 | ||
Team comparison
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3) vs Cleveland Browns (3-8)
| PIT | Metric | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2.6 | Power rating | -2.9 |
| 1565 | ELO | 1428 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| 0.01 | Offensive EPA | -0.12 |
| -0.11 | Defensive EPA | -0.05 |
| 44 | Success rate | 44 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 9 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 9.1 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 78 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 3-2 L5 |
| Neutral | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| neutral | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- PIT pass rush (33% pressure) vs CLE offensive line (60 grade)
- CLE explosive-play rate 9% vs PIT defensive EPA -0.11
- Third down: CLE 39% vs PIT 39%
- Red zone: CLE 55% vs PIT 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors PIT in neutral situations.
Market analysis
No key number exposure.
Opening spread
-3.5
Current spread
-2.5
Expected close
-3.0
Opening total
38.5
Current total
36.5
Moneyline (home)
-190
Implied probability
65.5%
Model probability
33.0%
Market disagreement
32.5 pts
Public tickets (home)
26%
Reverse line movement
None
Steam
Detected
Sharp side
PIT
Line volatility
High
Expected value
29.9%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
- T. Boswell · K · CLEEstimatedStatus Questionable · Practice LP · Projected impact -1.5 pts
Kicking accuracy in wind unresolved
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Regional
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
34°F
Wind
21 mph
Gusts
33 mph
Rain
20%
Snow
25%
Humidity
78%
Field
Wet, wind off the lake
Surface
Grass
Roof
Outdoor
Scoring impact
-3.4 projected points
Passing impact
Deep passing suppressed
Kicking impact
FG range reduced ~6 yards
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: no extreme ticket concentration.
- Primetime bias: national-window games historically draw inflated public confidence.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: minimal.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.