Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
50
Confidence
106
Edge score
Chicago BearsTier 2 · StrongVerified
Chicago Bears carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
MIN
Minnesota Vikings
Win probability
56.0%
Upset probability
44%
Cover probability
45.1%
Projected score
22–19
MIN – CHI
Projected total
40.9
Market 40.5
One-score prob.
52.7%
Overtime prob.
9.2%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- Chicago Bears projects ahead on home EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a high-volatility game. Environment compresses the sample and raises the underdog's live win path.
- Biggest risk
- Late line movement against the recommended side would erase most of the estimated edge.
- Biggest unknown
- Game-day wind forecast has not stabilized.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 50 / 100 · High volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 17.3 probability points
Market31.7% CHI
Power Rating46.0% CHI
ELO41.0% CHI
EPA49.0% CHI
Matchup45.0% CHI
Injury44.0% CHI
Weather47.0% CHI
Game Theory47.0% CHI
Material disagreement. The EPA and matchup models are more bullish on CHI than the market and injury models. The recommendation weights the market model heavily because the injury picture is unresolved; treat the probability as a range, not a point estimate.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 56.0% | 40 | 22.4 |
| Model agreement | 17.3 pt spread | 20 | 8.5 |
| Market stability | 0.5 pt move | 15 | 12.5 |
| Injury certainty | No open items | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather certainty | estimated | 5 | 3.5 |
| Variance profile | High | 10 | 3.5 |
| Composite | 60.4 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 12.3 pts of probability | 35 | 35.0 |
| Public bias | 31% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 13.8 |
| Contest ownership | 6% projected | 15 | 13.0 |
| Matchup advantage | 4.6 rating gap | 15 | 6.9 |
| Injury impact | None | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather impact | 17 mph wind | 5 | 2.0 |
| Composite | 80.7 | ||
Team comparison
Minnesota Vikings (8-2) vs Chicago Bears (4-6)
| MIN | Metric | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Power rating | -1.2 |
| 1585 | ELO | 1470 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| 0.07 | Offensive EPA | -0.08 |
| -0.05 | Defensive EPA | -0.02 |
| 44 | Success rate | 44 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 9 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 6.5 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 41 |
| 60 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 47.2 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 9 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 3-2 L5 |
| Highly unsustainable | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| negative | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- MIN pass rush (33% pressure) vs CHI offensive line (41 grade)
- CHI explosive-play rate 9% vs MIN defensive EPA -0.05
- Third down: CHI 39% vs MIN 47.2%
- Red zone: CHI 55% vs MIN 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors MIN in neutral situations.
Market analysis
Sitting on the key number 3 — half-point cost is material.
Opening spread
3.5
Current spread
3
Expected close
3.0
Opening total
41.5
Current total
40.5
Moneyline (home)
+216
Implied probability
31.7%
Model probability
44.0%
Market disagreement
12.3 pts
Public tickets (home)
31%
Reverse line movement
None
Steam
None
Sharp side
CHI
Line volatility
High
Expected value
13.2%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
No unresolved availability items recorded for this game in the demo data set.
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Regional
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
31°F
Wind
17 mph
Gusts
26 mph
Rain
10%
Snow
15%
Humidity
71%
Field
Cold, firm
Surface
Grass
Roof
Outdoor
Scoring impact
-3.4 projected points
Passing impact
Deep passing suppressed
Kicking impact
FG range reduced ~6 yards
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: no extreme ticket concentration.
- Primetime bias: not applicable.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: minimal.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.