Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
71
Confidence
73
Edge score
Tennessee TitansTier 2 · StrongVerified
Tennessee Titans carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
HOU
Houston Texans
Win probability
69.0%
Upset probability
31%
Cover probability
34.4%
Projected score
22–18
HOU – TEN
Projected total
39.8
Market 39.5
One-score prob.
48%
Overtime prob.
8.3%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- Tennessee Titans projects ahead on home EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a medium-volatility game. A single turnover swing or red-zone sequence flips the projected margin.
- Biggest risk
- Late line movement against the recommended side would erase most of the estimated edge.
- Biggest unknown
- Game-day wind forecast has not stabilized.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 71 / 100 · Medium volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 12.0 probability points
Market24.0% TEN
Power Rating33.0% TEN
ELO28.0% TEN
EPA36.0% TEN
Matchup32.0% TEN
Injury31.0% TEN
Weather31.0% TEN
Game Theory34.0% TEN
Models are aligned within 12 probability points. No material conflict to reconcile.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 69.0% | 40 | 27.6 |
| Model agreement | 12.0 pt spread | 20 | 12.0 |
| Market stability | 1.0 pt move | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury certainty | No open items | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather certainty | estimated | 5 | 3.5 |
| Variance profile | Medium | 10 | 7.0 |
| Composite | 70.1 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 7.0 pts of probability | 35 | 20.4 |
| Public bias | 24% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 15.2 |
| Contest ownership | 5% projected | 15 | 13.3 |
| Matchup advantage | 6.7 rating gap | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury impact | None | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather impact | 9 mph wind | 5 | 5.0 |
| Composite | 74.0 | ||
Team comparison
Houston Texans (6-4) vs Tennessee Titans (2-8)
| HOU | Metric | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 1.9 | Power rating | -4.8 |
| 1548 | ELO | 1380 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| 0.02 | Offensive EPA | -0.15 |
| -0.06 | Defensive EPA | 0.06 |
| 44 | Success rate | 44 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 9 |
| 41.2 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 6.5 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 44 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 60 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 3-2 L5 |
| Neutral | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| positive | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- HOU pass rush (41.2% pressure) vs TEN offensive line (60 grade)
- TEN explosive-play rate 9% vs HOU defensive EPA -0.06
- Third down: TEN 39% vs HOU 39%
- Red zone: TEN 55% vs HOU 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors HOU in neutral situations.
Market analysis
No key number exposure.
Opening spread
5.5
Current spread
4.5
Expected close
4.0
Opening total
40.5
Current total
39.5
Moneyline (home)
+317
Implied probability
24.0%
Model probability
31.0%
Market disagreement
7.0 pts
Public tickets (home)
24%
Reverse line movement
None
Steam
Detected
Sharp side
TEN
Line volatility
Medium
Expected value
9.1%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
No unresolved availability items recorded for this game in the demo data set.
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Regional
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
52°F
Wind
9 mph
Gusts
14 mph
Rain
15%
Snow
0%
Humidity
63%
Field
Dry
Surface
Turf
Roof
Outdoor
Scoring impact
Negligible
Passing impact
Neutral
Kicking impact
Neutral
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: no extreme ticket concentration.
- Primetime bias: not applicable.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: minimal.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.