Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
70
Confidence
146
Edge score
New England PatriotsTier 2 · StrongVerified
New England Patriots carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
MIA
Miami Dolphins
Win probability
68.0%
Upset probability
32%
Cover probability
64.8%
Projected score
19–24
NE – MIA
Projected total
42.9
Market 43.5
One-score prob.
41.8%
Overtime prob.
7.1%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- New England Patriots projects ahead on road EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a medium-volatility game. A single turnover swing or red-zone sequence flips the projected margin.
- Biggest risk
- Late line movement against the recommended side would erase most of the estimated edge.
- Biggest unknown
- Game-day wind forecast has not stabilized.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 70 / 100 · Medium volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 20.1 probability points
Market84.1% MIA
Power Rating70.0% MIA
ELO65.0% MIA
EPA73.0% MIA
Matchup69.0% MIA
Injury68.0% MIA
Weather68.0% MIA
Game Theory64.0% MIA
Material disagreement. The EPA and matchup models are more bullish on MIA than the market and injury models. The recommendation weights the market model heavily because the injury picture is unresolved; treat the probability as a range, not a point estimate.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 68.0% | 40 | 27.2 |
| Model agreement | 20.1 pt spread | 20 | 6.6 |
| Market stability | 1.0 pt move | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury certainty | No open items | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather certainty | estimated | 5 | 3.5 |
| Variance profile | Medium | 10 | 7.0 |
| Composite | 64.3 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 16.1 pts of probability | 35 | 35.0 |
| Public bias | 27% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 14.6 |
| Contest ownership | 9% projected | 15 | 12.0 |
| Matchup advantage | 2.8 rating gap | 15 | 4.2 |
| Injury impact | None | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather impact | 10 mph wind | 5 | 5.0 |
| Composite | 80.8 | ||
Team comparison
New England Patriots (3-8) vs Miami Dolphins (4-6)
| NE | Metric | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| -3.2 | Power rating | -0.4 |
| 1420 | ELO | 1490 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| -0.13 | Offensive EPA | 0.02 |
| 0.02 | Defensive EPA | 0.05 |
| 44 | Success rate | 44 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 9 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 6.5 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 60 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 3-2 L5 |
| Neutral | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| neutral | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- NE pass rush (33% pressure) vs MIA offensive line (60 grade)
- MIA explosive-play rate 9% vs NE defensive EPA 0.02
- Third down: MIA 39% vs NE 39%
- Red zone: MIA 55% vs NE 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors MIA in neutral situations.
Market analysis
No key number exposure.
Opening spread
-5.5
Current spread
-6.5
Expected close
-7.0
Opening total
42.5
Current total
43.5
Moneyline (home)
-529
Implied probability
84.1%
Model probability
68.0%
Market disagreement
16.1 pts
Public tickets (home)
73%
Reverse line movement
None
Steam
Detected
Sharp side
NE
Line volatility
Medium
Expected value
18.2%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
No unresolved availability items recorded for this game in the demo data set.
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Regional
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
81°F
Wind
10 mph
Gusts
15 mph
Rain
30%
Snow
0%
Humidity
84%
Field
Humid
Surface
Grass
Roof
Outdoor
Scoring impact
Negligible
Passing impact
Neutral
Kicking impact
Neutral
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: heavy home-side ticket concentration detected.
- Primetime bias: not applicable.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: minimal.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.