Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
85
Confidence
113
Edge score
Indianapolis ColtsTier 1 · Elite EVEstimated
Indianapolis Colts carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
KC
Kansas City Chiefs
Win probability
83.0%
Upset probability
17%
Cover probability
77.1%
Projected score
16–26
IND – KC
Projected total
42.1
Market 42.5
One-score prob.
26.4%
Overtime prob.
4.1%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- Indianapolis Colts projects ahead on road EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a low-volatility game. A single turnover swing or red-zone sequence flips the projected margin.
- Biggest risk
- R. Halloway (QB, IND) status is unresolved — 3.1 projected points of swing.
- Biggest unknown
- Game-day wind forecast has not stabilized.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 85 / 100 · Low volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 18.0 probability points
Market95.0% KC
Power Rating85.0% KC
ELO80.0% KC
EPA88.0% KC
Matchup84.0% KC
Injury77.0% KC
Weather83.0% KC
Game Theory79.0% KC
Material disagreement. The EPA and matchup models are more bullish on KC than the market and injury models. The recommendation weights the market model heavily because the injury picture is unresolved; treat the probability as a range, not a point estimate.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 83.0% | 40 | 33.2 |
| Model agreement | 18.0 pt spread | 20 | 8.0 |
| Market stability | 0.0 pt move | 15 | 15.0 |
| Injury certainty | 1 unresolved | 10 | 4.8 |
| Weather certainty | estimated | 5 | 3.5 |
| Variance profile | Low | 10 | 10.0 |
| Composite | 74.5 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 12.0 pts of probability | 35 | 35.0 |
| Public bias | 12% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 17.6 |
| Contest ownership | 41% projected | 15 | 1.3 |
| Matchup advantage | 7.2 rating gap | 15 | 10.8 |
| Injury impact | 1 item(s) | 10 | 4.0 |
| Weather impact | 14 mph wind | 5 | 5.0 |
| Composite | 73.7 | ||
Team comparison
Indianapolis Colts (5-6) vs Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
| IND | Metric | KC |
|---|---|---|
| -0.8 | Power rating | 6.4 |
| 1480 | ELO | 1660 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| -0.04 | Offensive EPA | 0.12 |
| 0.03 | Defensive EPA | -0.09 |
| 44 | Success rate | 48.1 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 10.4 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 6.5 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 60 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 6 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 5-0 L5 |
| Neutral | Turnover sustainability | Unsustainable |
| neutral | Regression status | negative |
Matchup analysis
- IND pass rush (33% pressure) vs KC offensive line (60 grade)
- KC explosive-play rate 10.4% vs IND defensive EPA 0.03
- Third down: KC 39% vs IND 39%
- Red zone: KC 55% vs IND 55%
- Non-division matchup; no familiarity adjustment applied.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors KC in neutral situations.
Market analysis
No key number exposure.
Opening spread
-11.5
Current spread
-11.5
Expected close
-11.5
Opening total
43.5
Current total
42.5
Moneyline (home)
-1908
Implied probability
95.0%
Model probability
83.0%
Market disagreement
12.0 pts
Public tickets (home)
88%
Reverse line movement
None
Steam
None
Sharp side
IND
Line volatility
Low
Expected value
14.1%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
- R. Halloway · QB · INDMissingStatus Questionable · Practice LP · Projected impact -3.1 pts
Starter unresolved as of report time
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Regional
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
39°F
Wind
14 mph
Gusts
21 mph
Rain
0%
Snow
0%
Humidity
49%
Field
Dry, cold
Surface
Grass
Roof
Outdoor
Scoring impact
-1.1 projected points
Passing impact
Neutral
Kicking impact
Neutral
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: heavy home-side ticket concentration detected.
- Primetime bias: not applicable.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: large spreads attract confidence-pool overweighting.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.