Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
65
Confidence
81
Edge score
Green Bay PackersTier 2 · StrongVerified
Green Bay Packers carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
DET
Detroit Lions
Win probability
63.0%
Upset probability
37%
Cover probability
60.7%
Projected score
24–29
GB – DET
Projected total
52.1
Market 52.5
One-score prob.
51.1%
Overtime prob.
8.9%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- Green Bay Packers projects ahead on road EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a medium-volatility game. A single turnover swing or red-zone sequence flips the projected margin.
- Biggest risk
- Late line movement against the recommended side would erase most of the estimated edge.
- Biggest unknown
- Snap-count allocation for the returning skill players.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 65 / 100 · Medium volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 12.0 probability points
Market71.0% DET
Power Rating65.0% DET
ELO60.0% DET
EPA68.0% DET
Matchup64.0% DET
Injury63.0% DET
Weather63.0% DET
Game Theory59.0% DET
Models are aligned within 12 probability points. No material conflict to reconcile.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 63.0% | 40 | 25.2 |
| Model agreement | 12.0 pt spread | 20 | 12.0 |
| Market stability | 1.0 pt move | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury certainty | No open items | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather certainty | verified | 5 | 5.0 |
| Variance profile | Medium | 10 | 7.0 |
| Composite | 69.2 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 8.0 pts of probability | 35 | 23.3 |
| Public bias | 29% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 14.2 |
| Contest ownership | 18% projected | 15 | 9.0 |
| Matchup advantage | 2.8 rating gap | 15 | 4.2 |
| Injury impact | None | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather impact | 0 mph wind | 5 | 5.0 |
| Composite | 65.7 | ||
Team comparison
Green Bay Packers (7-3) vs Detroit Lions (8-2)
| GB | Metric | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Power rating | 5.9 |
| 1578 | ELO | 1648 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| 0.1 | Offensive EPA | 0.18 |
| -0.04 | Defensive EPA | -0.03 |
| 44 | Success rate | 50.2 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 11.2 | Explosive-play rate | 12.8 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 6.5 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 60 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 3 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 4-1 L5 |
| Neutral | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| neutral | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- GB pass rush (33% pressure) vs DET offensive line (60 grade)
- DET explosive-play rate 12.8% vs GB defensive EPA -0.04
- Third down: DET 39% vs GB 39%
- Red zone: DET 55% vs GB 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors DET in neutral situations.
Market analysis
Sitting on the key number 3 — half-point cost is material.
Opening spread
-4.5
Current spread
-3.5
Expected close
-4.0
Opening total
51.5
Current total
52.5
Moneyline (home)
-245
Implied probability
71.0%
Model probability
63.0%
Market disagreement
8.0 pts
Public tickets (home)
71%
Reverse line movement
Detected
Steam
Detected
Sharp side
GB
Line volatility
Medium
Expected value
10.1%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
No unresolved availability items recorded for this game in the demo data set.
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Regional
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
70°F
Wind
0 mph
Gusts
0 mph
Rain
0%
Snow
0%
Humidity
38%
Field
Indoor
Surface
Turf
Roof
Indoor
Scoring impact
Negligible
Passing impact
Neutral
Kicking impact
Neutral
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: heavy home-side ticket concentration detected.
- Primetime bias: not applicable.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: minimal.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.