Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
87
Confidence
82
Edge score
Las Vegas RaidersTier 1 · Elite EVVerified
Las Vegas Raiders carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
DEN
Denver Broncos
Win probability
79.0%
Upset probability
21%
Cover probability
26.2%
Projected score
21–17
DEN – LV
Projected total
37.9
Market 37.5
One-score prob.
38.8%
Overtime prob.
6.5%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- Las Vegas Raiders projects ahead on home EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a low-volatility game. A single turnover swing or red-zone sequence flips the projected margin.
- Biggest risk
- Late line movement against the recommended side would erase most of the estimated edge.
- Biggest unknown
- Snap-count allocation for the returning skill players.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 87 / 100 · Low volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 13.2 probability points
Market12.8% LV
Power Rating23.0% LV
ELO18.0% LV
EPA26.0% LV
Matchup22.0% LV
Injury21.0% LV
Weather21.0% LV
Game Theory24.0% LV
Material disagreement. The EPA and matchup models are more bullish on LV than the market and injury models. The recommendation weights the market model heavily because the injury picture is unresolved; treat the probability as a range, not a point estimate.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 79.0% | 40 | 31.6 |
| Model agreement | 13.2 pt spread | 20 | 11.2 |
| Market stability | 1.0 pt move | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury certainty | No open items | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather certainty | verified | 5 | 5.0 |
| Variance profile | Low | 10 | 10.0 |
| Composite | 77.8 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 8.2 pts of probability | 35 | 23.9 |
| Public bias | 15% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 17.0 |
| Contest ownership | 2% projected | 15 | 14.3 |
| Matchup advantage | 5.8 rating gap | 15 | 8.7 |
| Injury impact | None | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather impact | 0 mph wind | 5 | 5.0 |
| Composite | 79.0 | ||
Team comparison
Denver Broncos (6-4) vs Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)
| DEN | Metric | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 1.7 | Power rating | -4.1 |
| 1543 | ELO | 1398 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| -0.02 | Offensive EPA | -0.16 |
| -0.13 | Defensive EPA | 0.05 |
| 44 | Success rate | 38.2 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 9 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 9.8 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 81 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 0 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 3-2 L5 |
| Neutral | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| neutral | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- DEN pass rush (33% pressure) vs LV offensive line (60 grade)
- LV explosive-play rate 9% vs DEN defensive EPA -0.13
- Third down: LV 39% vs DEN 39%
- Red zone: LV 55% vs DEN 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors DEN in neutral situations.
Market analysis
Near key number 7 — line shopping matters.
Opening spread
6.5
Current spread
7.5
Expected close
7.0
Opening total
38.5
Current total
37.5
Moneyline (home)
+684
Implied probability
12.8%
Model probability
21.0%
Market disagreement
8.2 pts
Public tickets (home)
15%
Reverse line movement
None
Steam
Detected
Sharp side
LV
Line volatility
Low
Expected value
10.3%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
No unresolved availability items recorded for this game in the demo data set.
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Regional
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
72°F
Wind
0 mph
Gusts
0 mph
Rain
0%
Snow
0%
Humidity
25%
Field
Indoor
Surface
Grass
Roof
Indoor
Scoring impact
Negligible
Passing impact
Neutral
Kicking impact
Neutral
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: no extreme ticket concentration.
- Primetime bias: not applicable.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: minimal.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.