Synthetic demo data. No schedule, betting-market, injury, weather, or statistics API is connected. Every number shown is fabricated for interface demonstration and must not be used for wagering decisions.
Executive recommendation
81
Confidence
121
Edge score
Dallas CowboysTier 1 · Elite EVVerified
Dallas Cowboys carries the estimated edge at the current number. Bet now.
Predicted winner
PHI
Philadelphia Eagles
Win probability
79.0%
Upset probability
21%
Cover probability
73.8%
Projected score
18–26
DAL – PHI
Projected total
44.0
Market 44.5
One-score prob.
32.5%
Overtime prob.
5.3%
Decision audit
Evidence-driven
- Why the pick wins
- Dallas Cowboys projects ahead on road EPA per play and holds the trench advantage (60 DL grade). The market is pricing the opponent's recent record rather than underlying efficiency.
- Why the pick loses
- Variance in a medium-volatility game. A single turnover swing or red-zone sequence flips the projected margin.
- Biggest risk
- Late line movement against the recommended side would erase most of the estimated edge.
- Biggest unknown
- Game-day wind forecast has not stabilized.
- What would change this
- Confirmed inactives, a starting-quarterback change, a two-point-or-greater line move, or a wind forecast revision above 18 mph.
- Confidence level
- 81 / 100 · Medium volatility
Model consensus
Spread across models: 17.0 probability points
Market92.0% PHI
Power Rating81.0% PHI
ELO76.0% PHI
EPA84.0% PHI
Matchup80.0% PHI
Injury79.0% PHI
Weather79.0% PHI
Game Theory75.0% PHI
Material disagreement. The EPA and matchup models are more bullish on PHI than the market and injury models. The recommendation weights the market model heavily because the injury picture is unresolved; treat the probability as a range, not a point estimate.
Score construction
Every score is decomposed — no black box
Confidence Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 79.0% | 40 | 31.6 |
| Model agreement | 17.0 pt spread | 20 | 8.7 |
| Market stability | 1.0 pt move | 15 | 10.0 |
| Injury certainty | No open items | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather certainty | estimated | 5 | 3.5 |
| Variance profile | Medium | 10 | 7.0 |
| Composite | 70.8 | ||
Edge Score
| Input | Value | Weight | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model vs market | 13.0 pts of probability | 35 | 35.0 |
| Public bias | 16% of tickets on rec side | 20 | 16.8 |
| Contest ownership | 22% projected | 15 | 7.7 |
| Matchup advantage | 5.7 rating gap | 15 | 8.6 |
| Injury impact | None | 10 | 10.0 |
| Weather impact | 12 mph wind | 5 | 5.0 |
| Composite | 83.0 | ||
Team comparison
Dallas Cowboys (4-7) vs Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)
| DAL | Metric | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| -0.9 | Power rating | 4.8 |
| 1478 | ELO | 1620 |
| 0 | EPA / play | 0 |
| 0.01 | Offensive EPA | 0.11 |
| 0.08 | Defensive EPA | -0.07 |
| 44 | Success rate | 47.6 |
| 46 | Early-down success | 46 |
| 9 | Explosive-play rate | 9.8 |
| 33 | Pressure rate | 33 |
| 6.5 | Sack rate | 6.5 |
| 60 | O-line grade | 60 |
| 60 | D-line grade | 60 |
| 39 | Third down % | 39 |
| 55 | Red zone % | 55 |
| 0 | Turnover margin | 4 |
| 0.5 | Strength of schedule | 0.5 |
| 3-2 L5 | Recent form | 3-2 L5 |
| Neutral | Turnover sustainability | Neutral |
| neutral | Regression status | neutral |
Matchup analysis
- DAL pass rush (33% pressure) vs PHI offensive line (60 grade)
- PHI explosive-play rate 9.8% vs DAL defensive EPA 0.08
- Third down: PHI 39% vs DAL 39%
- Red zone: PHI 55% vs DAL 55%
- Division familiarity historically compresses margins by ~1.2 points.
- Fourth-down aggressiveness favors PHI in neutral situations.
Market analysis
No key number exposure.
Opening spread
-10.5
Current spread
-9.5
Expected close
-10.0
Opening total
45.5
Current total
44.5
Moneyline (home)
-1143
Implied probability
92.0%
Model probability
79.0%
Market disagreement
13.0 pts
Public tickets (home)
84%
Reverse line movement
Detected
Steam
Detected
Sharp side
DAL
Line volatility
Medium
Expected value
15.1%
CLV opportunity
Positive — take current number
Bet timing
Bet now
Player availability
Unverified items are labeled and never treated as confirmed
No unresolved availability items recorded for this game in the demo data set.
Rest
Standard week
Travel
Regional
Altitude
Sea level
Bye impact
None
Playoff implications
Moderate
Resting starters
Not applicable in Week 12
Weather
Temperature
46°F
Wind
12 mph
Gusts
19 mph
Rain
10%
Snow
0%
Humidity
58%
Field
Dry
Surface
Grass
Roof
Outdoor
Scoring impact
-1.1 projected points
Passing impact
Neutral
Kicking impact
Neutral
Bias audit
Documented for every recommendation
- Public bias: heavy home-side ticket concentration detected.
- Primetime bias: not applicable.
- Recency bias: last-week results were explicitly excluded from the power-rating update beyond their efficiency contribution.
- Favorite bias: large spreads attract confidence-pool overweighting.
- Brand bias: rating inputs are efficiency-based, not reputation-based.